The overall trend of soybean futures (May) is negative & hence it may witness sell on rise from 3630 levels to 3550- 3520.
As 2019 southwest monsoon forecast by India Meteorological Department is near normal, the market participants are
expecting a bigger soybean crop this year. Moreover, the Centre has 304,090.1 tn certified soybean seeds, 30,121.5 tn higher than
requirement for sowing in the upcoming kharif season beginning June. If the southwest monsoon fares well, then soybean crop is
seen higher on year. Another major factor which is adding to the bearishness is the downtrend of Chicago soybean futures which is
on track for a fourth straight weekly loss on expectations of higher U.S. production and slowing demand from top buyer China
dragging prices lower. At present, Commodity funds are net sellers of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Soy oil futures (May) is
expected to follow the bearish footsteps of soybean & selling pressure may drag the counter to 728 levels, if breaks 733 levels. The
supplies are increasing in the spot markets due to imports of refined soybean oil and palmolein from Nepal at zero customs duty
under a concession given to the least developed nations in the SAARC region. In addition, the imported soybean oil is being sold
at Rs.5,000 per ton cheaper as compared with local soybean oil. The downtrend of CPO futures (May) will prevail as there is
possibility that it may test 515-512 levels in days to come. The sentiments have turned pessimistic in the Malaysian markets after
the forecast that palm oil output is estimated to rise to 20 million tons in 2019, up from as much as 19.5 million tons predicted
earlier.
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