Cotton futures (Apr) is expected to witness further correction towards 21800 levels.
Restricted arrivals are
slowing down the pace of overseas demand due to which cotton exports from the country are pegged at 47 lakh bales (one bale
weighs 170kg) in 2018-19, which is the lowest since 2009-10. The domestic demand is also sluggish & the surging rates of cotton,
in combination with a shortage, have forced Tamil Nadu-based spinning mills to look at imports to meet their production
requirements. Chana futures (May) may face resistance near 4445 levels & trade with a downside bias on reports of further imports
by the country. India will import 1.75 lakh tonnes of tur, other pulses from Mozambique in 2019-20 as the Directorate General of
Foreign Trade (DGFT) on Tuesday issued a trade notice regarding implementation of the India-Mozambique MoU. According to it,
India will import 175,000 tonnes of Mozambique grown pigeon pea (commonly known as Tur/Arhar) and other pulses in 2019-20.
We may see more downside in guar seed & guar gum futures (May) as it may test 4290-4250 & 8600-8550 respectively. The
reason for this bearishness is the forecast of good monsoon & guar being a rain-fed crop, this is a major negative factors for the
prices. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has updated that El Nino would be short-lived and weak. This forecast is
supporting the India Met Department (IMD) outlook that monsoon would be close to normal. The BoM has also mentioned that the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could possibly turn into a positive phase during June to November, giving way to a healthy Indian
monsoon.
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