Cotton futures (Apr) is expected to hover range bound within 22050-22350 levels.
Restricted arrivals are
slowing down the pace of overseas demand due to which cotton exports from the country are pegged at 47 lakh bales (one bale
weighs 170kg) in 2018-19, which is the lowest since 2009-10. Chana futures (May) may trade with a negative bias & selling from
higher levels near 4570 may bring the counter down to 4430. The expectation of country importing more pulses & lack of demand
in the spot markets due to absence of bulk buying will exert pressure on pulses in days to come. Recently, the Commerce Ministry
has laid down a procedure for import of 2 lakh tonnes of pigeon peas/ toor dal, 1.5 lakh tonnes urad dal, 1.5 lakh tonnes moong dal
and 1.5 lakh tonnes peas (including yellow peas, green peas, dun peas, and kaspa peas) for the current fiscal and has invited
applications from millers. We may see more downside in guar seed & guar gum futures (May) as it may test 4290-4250 & 8600-
8550 respectively. The reason for this bearishness is the forecast of good monsoon & guar being a rain-fed crop, this is a major
negative factors for the prices. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has updated that El Nino would be short-lived and
weak. This forecast is supporting the India Met Department (IMD) outlook that monsoon would be close to normal. The BoM has
also mentioned that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could possibly turn into a positive phase during June to November, giving way
to a healthy Indian monsoon.
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