CAPITALSTARS MONDAY COTTON FUTURES AGRI MARKET NEWS UPDATE 15 APRIL 2019

 Cotton futures (Apr) would probably remain stuck in the range of 22100-22400 levels.

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The overall bias is of upside owing to continuous cut in production estimates due to scarcity of water in major producing regions. The CAI has estimated cotton crop for 2018-19 at 321 lakh bales of 170 kgs each which is lower by 7 lakh bales than its previous estimate of 328 lakh bales made during last month. Stock at the end of March 2019 is estimated at 93 lakh bales including 45.85 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 47.15 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.). On the international market, the market participants would be keeping an eye on the storm that is expected to hit the southern part of US where there is a lot of cotton, which is going to limit progress in plantation. Chana futures (May) is expected to rise further towards 4600 levels, hence lower level buying would is recommended as it may take support near 4475 levels. Restricted import from Australia due to high import duty is keeping the trend bullish. With increasing demand from packaged Indian snacks makers chana consumption is on a rise in India. On the supply side, crop arrivals across Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are less compared to the previous year and there are lower stocks with the trade which are supporting prices. Guar seed & Guar gum futures (May) are likely to trade with an upside bias to test 4550 & 9250 levels respectively. The persisting concerns of an evolving El Nino & chances of a deficit monsoon could act as a catalyst to fuel up the rally in these counters. 

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