Cotton futures (Apr) trading near its two months high is expected to see lengthier gains as it might touch 22600 levels.
The main reasons behind this tall rally are sharp decline in market arrivals & the estimate that meagre 55-60 lakh
bales are left with farmers across the country & there could be a shortage of some 32-33 lakh bales this season. Currently, farmersin Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh still have some stock left. Farmers in Haryana,
Punjab and Rajasthan have little or no cotton with them. Chana futures (May) is looking bullish & in days to come we may see
4600 levels on the back of shortages in supply. Anticipating that India's domestic stockpile of pulses could deplete to critical levels
by the end of this year, the dal mills are picturing to build around two months of inventories from fresh pulses harvest coming in
market. Presently, the arrivals of pulses are lesser as compared to a year ago on the in spot markets of Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Guar seed & Guar gum futures (May) together may see an extended rally till 4600 & 9300 levels
respectively. The factor behind the bullishness in these commodities is the possibility of below normal rainfall. Skymet predicted
that rainfall in the June-to-September monsoon season in India will be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin
of plus or minus 5%.The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. The model projections call for 80% chance of
El Nino during March-May, dropping to 60% for June to August, during the peak planting season of guar.
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