Cotton futures (Jan) is likely to test 20500-20400 levels on the downside due to lack of demand.
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In Gujarat, ginners are staying away from fresh buying, while in
Karnataka and Telangana, the majority of them are operating in a single shift and
the lack of demand from textiles mills. Meanwhile in Karnataka, about half the 300
mills have already shut down owing to lack of business. Guar seed futures (Feb) will
probably remain steady taking support near 4240 levels, while guar gum futures
(Feb) may remain stable above 8500 levels. A probability forecast for El Niño and La
Niña (ENSO) by the IMD indicated maximum probability for ENSO neutral
conditions (neither an El Niño event nor a La Niña event in February this year.
Propensity towards a deficient monsoon is more during El Nino conditions & if the
forecast turns to be true, then it will hamper the output of guar in 2019-20 (OctSept), and positive signal to the prices. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to plunge
further towards 4150 levels taking negative cues from the spot markets. A sluggish
trend in chana is being witnessed in the domestic markets amid increased
availability of the government stock and the rise in selling pressure of chana by the
NAFED, especially in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Additionally,
millers are not actively engaged in buying as demand in sale counters for Chana dal
and besan is poor. Sentiments are still weak as arrivals of new crop are likely to
improve and also on continued selling of stock at lower rates by government
agency as they are holding major old stocks.
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