CAPITALSTARS MONDAY COTTON FUTURES AGRI MARKET NEWS UPDATE 07 JAN 2019

CapitalStars Investment Adviser

Despite of the fact that cotton output for the year 2018-19 (November–October) is expected fall way below initial estimates & also that recent arrivals have been dismal, with the total this season standing at only 11.5 million bales, the prices may not see an upside momentum. Day’s ahead, cotton futures (Jan) on MCX is expected to face resistance near 21200 levels. The reason being, cotton import will rise to a record high. According to preliminary estimates by the Cotton Association of India, imports of 2.7 million bales may happen in the current year. Also, the exports are also expected to shrink to 5.3 million bales this year, from 6.5 million bales the last year. On the international front, prices have fallen sharply for the second week in a row due to the U.S government shutdown. Guar seed futures (Feb) may consolidate in the range of 4340-4440 levels, while guar gum futures (Feb) will possibly face resistance near 8745 levels. Amid, volatility in crude oil prices in the international markets and global economy concern, the stockists are mostly sidelined. On the demand front, questions are being raised on guargum exports after it is reported that in U.S thousands of shale wells that were drilled in

the last five years are pumping less oil and gas than their owners forecast to investors, due to less profitability of the fracking boom. The Wall Street Journal’s findings suggest current production levels may be hard to sustain without greater spending because operators will have to drill more wells to meet growth targets. Yet shale drillers, most of whom have yet to consistently make money, are under pressure to cut spending in the face of a 40% crude-oil price decline since October. 

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