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Soybean futures (Jan) may witness consolidation in the range of 3310-3360. Despite of fact that China and India may be talking to drop a years-long ban on soymeal imports, but seems that it’s very late to encash the opportunity of the trade war, the reason being China has returned to the U.S. soybean market. The USDA has confirmed 1.199 million tonnes of U.S. soy sales to China in the second wave since trade compromise. The sales come after U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day trade war truce to negotiate a trade deal after meeting at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires earlier this month. The short covering in mustard futures (Jan) is expected to remain capped & face resistance near 4030 levels. The sentiments are bearish amid higher acreage and a delay in import demand for Indian mustard meal from China has been a spoilsport. Additionally, the supply of new crop from Uttar Pradesh starting January & Nafed liquidating its stocks will keep prices under pressure this season. The latest data show that 4.52 lakh tonnes of balance stocks are available with Nafed. The recovery would continue to be seen in CPO futures (Dec) towards 515, taking support near 509-507 levels. Expectations of a cut in the import duty by 4% before the implementation of Malaysia–India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (MICECA) may push up the prices in the domestic market. The international market is also giving positive cues through the expectations that production of palm oil in Malaysia will taper off at the end of the year as per the seasonal trend.
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